Study: Millions of Europeans Could Die from Heat by end of Century

A new study warns that millions of Europeans could die from heat-related causes by the end of the century.

The study was based on computer simulations of predicted climate activity in 854 different European cities. It found that extreme temperatures, mostly heat, could kill as many as 2.3 million people in Europe by 2100.

The researchers said the number of predicted deaths could be reduced if nations are able to find better ways of cutting carbon pollution levels and dealing with extreme heat.

Currently, cold weather kills far more people in Europe than hot weather. But the study found that as temperatures continue to rise, deaths from cold weather will lessen over time. However, heat-related deaths are predicted to rise sharply.

Scientists at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine led the research. The results appeared recently in a study in the publication Nature Medicine.

The researchers urged increased efforts to reduce greenhouse gases and expand indoor air-cooling systems and cooling centers in parts of Europe. Without such efforts, places in Italy, southern Spain and Greece are likely to see large increases in heat deaths related to climate change, the study found.

On the other hand, much of Scandinavia and Britain are predicted to see fewer temperature-related deaths, largely because low temperatures are expected to become more moderate.

Pierre Masselot studies the environmental effects of human health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. He helped lead the research.

Masselot told the Associated Press that drops in cold deaths in northern parts of Europe are happening in areas not as populated as places further south. “The Mediterranean is a so-called climate hotspot," he said. "It's a region that is warming much quicker than the rest of the world. And Malta is right in the middle of it.”

The study predicts Malta’s temperature-related deaths will increase by 269 people for every 100,000 individuals by the end of the century. On the other hand, Ireland’s rate is expected to drop slightly to 15 per 100,000 people.

European officials reported several heat waves have killed thousands of people in recent years across the continent. The highest number was in 2003, when about 70,000 deaths were recorded.

Among the areas predicted to see the most deaths from future temperature rises is Barcelona, Spain. The study found almost 250,000 people could die from temperature-related causes in that city by 2100. And the study warned that Rome and Naples could have up to 150,000 deaths.

The study predicted that more than 5.8 million extra heat deaths would be linked to climate change. At the same time, the study found cold-related deaths would drop by 3.5 million.

I’m Bryan Lynn.

The Associated Press reported on this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English.

simulate – v. do or make something that behaves or looks like something real but is not

region – n. a particular area in a country or the world

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